Sunday, March 15, 2015

Trading Plan For Each Market Situation.

Any Market(Commodity , Equity , Currency) remains in Consolidation or range bound for 70% times , extreme volatile 5% , 20% times in trend which includes normal & extreme both & 5% non trending or non trading .

We must have trading plans for 
a) Consolidations.
b) Trending (Normal & Extreme)
c) Non trending.
 Consolidation Trading Plan:
Strictly keep r/r 1:2 & follow your stop losses as market may remain in range & moved in both directions so chances are higher for stop loss hitting.

Technical formations: Triangles, rectangles, pennant, horizontal channels are the common formations.
Volumes: Random & low compared to trending market.
How to trade Consolidation: First of all find major upper & lower level for break out. Usually rsi took support at 40/30 & resist at 60/55 level. Make position near resistance & support with small stop losses.
Success ratio: 50-60% ratio is good enough n happy trading as most of the time we remain in this zone almost 70%. So if we go with 50-60% ratio with r/r 1:2 we can earn good amount for life spanning n savings too.
Trading quantity: Trade with risk capitates but suggests keeping small sized quantity.
Stress level: Medium, need to control over quantity traded n playing each n every move of market. But can be controlled by keeping patience.
Fear & Greed Factor: Both come simultaneously with randomness. Market test your patience n force to put trades, some spikes can be seen.
Risk of Ruin: Medium to low, as major part of your trading goes in brokerages even if you go with small stop losses.

Trending Trading Plan:
In trending market keep a risk reward ratio of 1:4 or above or we can simply follow trailing stop loss method to retain maximum profit from current trend.
Technical Formation: Breakout from reversal pattern like head & shoulder, Double top/bottom , cup n handle , triple bottom/top , wedge formation , triangles .Breakout from Continuation pattern like all consolidation patterns, Channels, pennants, flag, triangles, rectangles.
Volumes: High at breakouts, medium in between trend & extremely high or low at top/bottom. (Sign of reversal).
Extreme Technical Formation: Bump & Run, Channel, small flag & pennants.

How to trade Regular Trending Market:
First confirm the breakout from both reversal n continuation pattern then take entry with proper sl go ahead for target. In trending market RSI for bulls took support near 40 & find resistance near 80 zone & remain in upper range while in bear market took resistance near 65 n supports at 20-25.Also u can remain in trend with the help of moving averages for trailing stop loss method or can use parabolic SAR. In trending market you must have a rock solid exit strategy to remain in full trending market.
Success Ratio: If u enter correctly in market than your success ratio can be up to 100% . Normally 80% success ratio is achieved during this period. As maximum profit will make in this move only .We have to get maximum out of it & earning could be life changing amount.
Trading quantity: Normally enter with medium to large quantity n add more positions in pullbacks & corrections.
Stress level: low when entered properly & extremely high when entered wrong n holding it. This is the market condition when u should remain n play each n every pullback n correction as r/r ratio is favourable n works for you.
Fear & Greed Factor: Greed is commonly at high level, fear remains at low level. Confidence of participant is high.
Risk of Ruin: Very high if play against the trend. Low as everyone makes money in it; small or big J

How to trade Extreme Trending Market:
Normally moves are very large n swings are also very large. One should keep focus on entry & exit for this kind of movement. Usually suggest to follow trailing stop loss method to gain maximum out of it n be with this extreme move. Exit is more important in this trend coz swings are very large n when trend changes it is not easy to pretend, while return in this move is too high so on risk is also too high. From risk/reward ratio one should focus on risk prospective instead of reward as price action is too fast so as gains.
Technical Formation: Most Common formation is bump n Run, Extended channels, extremely overbought /oversold indicators. RSI values trades b/w 90-95 to 60-55 for bulls & 55-60 to 15-10 for bears.
Volumes: Volumes remain high during full trend & extreme at end of trend due to major short covering/fresh buying. (Sign of reversal)
Trading quantity:  Again I suggest risk is more imp than return in this kind of market. Even small quantity can give u awesome returns in terms of profit.
Stress level: Very high for those who are on wrong track, low for who are on right side?
Fear & Greed Factor: Greed is at extreme level n fear joins the party in later part of trend. Over Confidence is commonly witnessed. One should try to keep emotions in control.
Risk of Ruin: Very very high if play against the trend & Low for who are on right track as money flows in particular direction. J


Non Trending Market:
It is advised not to trade this kind of market as we can see either no volatility in this phase of market , volumes shrinks a lot which provides lot of confusion in mind whether trade it or not fear n greed both comes simultaneously n create more panic situation. This market only creates brokerages which creates risk of ruin to very high level. Confidence level is at lowest level.

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