Crude Oil A Confusing Move ???? 23 august 2013 (For Educational purpose only )

 

 Above is daily chart of Nymex WTI Crude oil which is currently trading at $105.13 trading in a narrow range of $109-$102 from last 2 months. Now this Triangular formation is about to mature with in 1-2 week. Particularly it  may give breakout in upward direction if it don't break the level of $102 on closing basis & may find its first resistance at upper trend line @ 107.50-108.10 range. Above it ,we can see Crude oil to reach $114. & If not so then we can consider it to be a distribution phase & price may decline to south ward direction.

Above is daily chart of USDINR spot which is currently trading at 64.59 With a steep upward move from last 5 days. This steep move had a great impact on Indian crude prices & also USDINR always have direct impact on CRUDE prices in india as they are directly proportional to USDINR .i.e. if USDINR is UP, CRUDE prices in INR is also UP  & vice versa ;  invaliding  falling in International crude prices upto some extent or it may consolidate with in a range  what ever trend may be in International market.

 

Above is daily  chart of Crude oil in Indian Currency. Here it has some different formation as compared to NYMEX Crude. It is due to sharp rise in USDINR .Now if in near term if we see some decline in USDINR we can expect Crude prices to fall upto some extent though it may catch north direction in NYMEX.

           Crude at present trading at 6729 (sept. future) , if it break 6650 level we can see some downside ,it may find its first support at 6436 level below 6650 . While 6150 will act as trend reversal level & act as strong support for crude for last 3 months. A move above 6850 might resume its uptrend & may test 7000 level.I will suggest to be cautious at this level & one should track USDINR move before entering any trade as it may play an important role b/w NYMEX & MCX prices.